在权益投资(Equity)的市场有效性(Market Efficiency)中,有一节专门讲行为金融。行为金融学科的产生,源于市场中的投资者并不总是是理性人(Rational Man),而是有认知偏差的;而行为金融就是研究投资者的行为,以理解个人和集体的决策方式,并继而解释一些定价的异常。
投资行为,是广义的,可以包括
个人买卖股票,CFA中最多的例子
我们融资租赁授信的债权投资(授信)
造成融资需求的投资(设备购买)
等等
损失厌恶Loss Aversion
损失厌恶,指对损失的厌恶超过对等金额收益的喜欢,换言之,他们回避损失的动机超过收益。也即,存在这一种情绪可能,由损失引起的不满超过了由同等规模的收益引起的满意。(Behavioral finance allows for the possibility that the dissatisfaction resulting from a loss exceeds the satisfaction resulting from a gain of the same magnitude)
这的具体例子,就是A确定获得100,B抛硬币正面200反面0,大部分人选择A,但面对A确定损失100,B抛硬币正面-200反面0,大部分人选择B。这是一个确定性和不确定的选择。对证券交易市场的影响,既有反应过度的例子,也有反应不足例子。(Although loss aversion can explain the overreaction anomaly, evidence also suggests that under reaction is just as prevalent as overreaction, which counters these arguments)
在融资租赁业务中,我们可能需要警惕这样一种决策,客户由于下游客户需求得变化,面对两个选择
A.退出业务,-100
B.扩大业务,100或-300
这时候,客户很可能选择B,我们不能单纯想象100的可能。
羊群效应Herding
投资者忽略自己的有效信息,盲目追随其他投资者。
证券交易市场的追涨杀跌(大家买就是好,大家卖就是坏),人云亦云,就是明显羊群效应,
Herding occurs when investors trade on the same side of the market in the same securities,or when investors ignore their own private information and/or analysis and act asother investors do. Herding is clustered trading that may or may not be based on information.53 Herding may result in under- or over-reaction to information depending upon the direction of the herd.
在融资租赁业务中,客户的投资首先是一次羊群效应,例如华南市场,之前LED风潮,金属边框风潮,由于赚钱效应,大量异业投资人拥入。
其次,租赁公司本身也是羊群效应,这个客户这么其他家都做了,大家都调研过认可过肯定好;那个客户没人做肯定有问题,不做第一个吃螃蟹的人;充分印证了双向羊群效应的存在。
过度自信Overconfidence
投资者高估自己投资能力,就算市场信息对其不利。
或者说,存在过度自信的投资者,会错误处理信息,尤其在评估增长较快的公司时。
Overconfident investors may not process information appropriately, and if there is a sufficient number of these investors, stocks will be mispriced. But most researchers argue that this mispricing is temporary, with prices correcting eventually.
……This overconfidence, however, is predominantly in higher-growth companies, whoseprices react slowly to new information.
在融资租赁业务中,客户的过度自信可能表现在,购置设备时,对未来收益的盲目乐观,或者筹借周转金去接新大订单时,对盈利的盲目乐观。
例如,存在一个误区,客户,在做出买设备的决策时,必然已经有了充分的订单和生产能力,必然已经对市场和自身进行了严谨的评估;实际上,可能,偏重考虑了收益的倾向,而轻视了风险的可能。当然,客户没有对市场充分了解,也不是能授信,要么是授信人对市场的了解补上,要么是客户或担保人底子足够厚,亏得起。
信息瀑布Information Cascade
指市场参与者模仿投资水平高于自己的投资者行为。
信息瀑布与羊群效应有共通之处,信息瀑布侧重个人学习(Personal learning is what investors learn by observing outcomes of trades and what they learn from conversations ideas shared among investors about specific assets and the markets),侧重先后性(transmission of information from those participants who act first and whose decisions influence the decisions of others),是个理性行为。
但发展到盲从,就是羊群效应。
Are information cascades rational? If the informed traders act first and uninformedtraders imitate the informed traders, this behavior is consistent with rationality.The imitation trading by the uninformed traders may help the market incorporate relevantinformation and improve market efficiency. However, the imitation trading may lead to an overreaction to information. The empiricalevidence indicates that information cascades are greater for a stock when the informationquality regarding the company is poor.Information cascades may enhance the information available to investors.
在商业市场中,这个高水平者,就是个对标企业。我们关注对标企业的动向,学习对标企业的发展。融资租赁业务中,客户基本都有对标企业,访厂时一般都会询问他们的对标企业。这个属于是产业研究的一部分。
我们作为融资租赁公司,也有对标企业。
无论是证券市场还是商业市场,都无法完全按照对标企业路径去增长,需要边学习边摸着石头过河。
其他的常见行为偏差还有
representativeness—investors assess new information and probabilities of outcomes based on similarityto the current state or to a familiar classification;
mental accounting—investors keep track of the gains and losses for different investments in separatemental accounts and treat those accounts differently;
conservatism—investors tend to be slow to react to new information and continue to maintain theirprior views or forecasts; and
narrow framing—investors focus on issues in isolation and respond to the issues based on how theissues are posed